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<title-group><article-title>A Combined CNN and LSTM Model to Predict PM2.5 Concentration in Vietnam</article-title></title-group>
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<contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Phuong-Binh</surname><given-names>Vo</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"/></contrib>
<aff id="aff1">Faculty of Maths and Computer Science, Dalat University. No. 1, Phu Dong Thien Vuong St., Dalat City, ‎Lam Dong, Vietnam.</aff>
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<abstract><p>In this paper, we propose a combined deep learning model of Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) to predict PM2.5 concentration in Dalat, a famous tourism city in Vietnam. CNN is utilized to extract spatial features of environmental images. The remaining component, LSTM, is designed for the training of spatial and temporal features to predict PM2.5 over a specific period. In our model, training data consists of environmental images and PM2.5 concentrations collected from lifelog on different roads in Dalat City, Vietnam. Experimental results show that the proposed combined CNN and LSTM model using both spatial and temporal features achieves superior PM2.5 concentration prediction accuracy compared to the traditional LSTM approach.</p></abstract>
<kwd-group kwd-group-type="author"><kwd>PM2.5 prediction</kwd><kwd>Deep learning</kwd><kwd>Convolutional neural networks</kwd><kwd>Long short-term memory</kwd></kwd-group>
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<sec id="sec-1"><label>1</label><title>Introduction</title>
<p>Air pollution, particularly the concentration of fine particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10), is a matter of grave concern in the modern world, including Vietnam located in Southeast Asia. Therefore, PM2.5 and PM10 concentration prediction is important for environmental monitoring and public health management.</p>
<p>An association model using a deep learning method called MLP (Multilayer Perception) was proposed to study the association relationship between environmental images and PM2.5 AQI levels of lifelog data collected in Japan <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-1">[1]</xref>. Lifelog or life-log is defined as digital information about personal daily life, which is a set of events (e.g., traffic jam, garbage, …etc.) collected day-by-day <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-2">[2]</xref>. And AQI (Air Quality Index) <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-3">[3]</xref> is an indicator of the rank of air pollution that is usually based on measurements of environmental sensing data, such as PM2.5, PM10, ozone (O3), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2) and carbon monoxide (CO). According to the aforementioned reference, the AQI rank contains six levels from 1 to 6 for Good, Moderate, Unhealthy for Sensitive Group, Unhealthy, Very Unhealthy, and Hazardous, respectively. Recently, images related to environmental pollution (e.g., traffic congestion) have been used to predict PM2.5 concentration <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-4">[4]</xref>.</p>
<p>In this paper, we propose a combined deep learning model of Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) to predict PM2.5 concentration in Dalat, a famous tourism city in Vietnam. CNN is utilized to extract spatial features of environmental images. The remaining component, LSTM, is designed for the training of spatial and temporal features to predict PM2.5 over a specific period. In our model, training data consists of environmental images and PM2.5 concentrations collected from lifelog on different roads in Dalat City, Vietnam. Experimental results show that the proposed combined CNN and LSTM model using both spatial and temporal features achieves superior PM2.5 concentration prediction accuracy compared to the traditional LSTM approach.</p>
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<sec id="sec-2"><label>2</label><title>Methods</title>
<p>There is many various deep learning models used to predict time-series data in the literature, such as Random Forest (RF), Decision Tree (DT), Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), MLP, CNN, and LSTM. In this research, CNN and LSTM models are combined using spatial and temporal features to predict PM2.5 concentration in Vietnam, as illustrated in <xref ref-type="fig" rid="fig1">Fig. 1</xref>.</p>
<fig id="fig1"><label>Figure 1</label><caption><p>Overview of proposed combined CNN-LSTM model for PM2.5 prediction.</p></caption><graphic content-type="pdf-region" xlink:href="pdf-region:1:66,187.2,553.8,459.4"/><p content-type="note">This figure is shown in the PDF version of the article.</p></fig>
<sec id="sec-3"><title>Data collection</title>
<p>There are eight roads of a route in Dalat city (Vietnam) used to collect lifelog data for our experiment. The length of the route is about 6.6 km. Some different sensors are used to record both environmental images and numerical data. The AQI factor of numerical data, i.e., PM2.5, and images are recorded along the route in the meantime. We invested 33 days for data acquisition with both visual and numerical data from Oct. 15 to Nov. 17, 2019. In addition, we also used 43.824 collected PM2.5 public data days from 2010 to 2014 years for the single LSTM training stage.</p>
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<sec id="sec-4"><title>CNN extraction model</title>
<p>The lifelog images were processed to extract spatial features, while PM2.5 data was included as an additional input feature to study the association relationship between environmental visual features and AQI levels. CNN is an efficient deep learning method to detect and extract features of visual big data (i.e., images)<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-5">[5]</xref>. Recently, there have been some CNN-based recognition algorithms. Deep Residual Networks (ResNet) <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-6">[6]</xref> was proposed by Microsoft Research as the best model for ImageNet Large Scale Visual Recognition Challenge (ILSVRC) <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-7">[7]</xref> in 2015, and it became possible to construct deep neural networks of up to 1000 CNN layers or more. Each layer is considered to extract more sophisticated and complex features. Place-CNN<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-8">[8]</xref> fine-tuned ResNet for scene classification. Attention-CNN <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-9">[9]</xref> also adopted the ResNet as a CNN seed for image captioning and visual question answering. In our experiment, Attention-CNN is the best feature extractor of the above-mentioned methods that is utilized to extract feature vectors of our lifelog visual data. Then, the combined one-dimensional vectors of extracted features are used as the input data for the proposed CNN-LSTM model training to predict PM2.5 concentrations.</p>
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<sec id="sec-5"><title>Traditional LSTM prediction model</title>
<p>The traditional LSTM model<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-10">[10]</xref> was trained to capture temporal dependencies in the PM2.5 data. The LSTM model was designed to enable effective prediction of PM2.5 concentrations over a specific period. In our experimental data, PM2.5 values of each route recorded within the same period are strongly different for various days. The PM2.5 concentrations of each route can be fairly predicted using the traditional LSTM model with untrained data of the remaining days.</p>
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<sec id="sec-6"><title>Proposed combined CNN and LSTM model</title>
<p>The proposed deep learning model combined the CNN Extraction model in Step 2 and the traditional LSTM model in Step 3 above to recognize some abnormal changes of PM2.5 data (e.g., traffic congestion, garbage, …etc.). Different from the traditional pure LSTM architecture, the first stage of the proposed combined CNN-LSTM uses CNN-Extractor, and the latter stage is LSTM forecasting, which is used to analyze the features extracted by CNN-Extractor and then to estimate the PM2.5 concentration. The training process involved optimizing the model’s parameters to minimize the prediction error. The training was performed until the model reached a satisfactory level of accuracy.</p>
<p>In our combined CNN-LSTM model, the loss function is “categorical_crossentropy” and the optimizer is SGD (Stochastic Gradient Descent) with a learning rate of 0.01.</p>
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<sec id="sec-7"><label>3</label><title>Results</title>
<p>The results of this research are as follows:</p>
<sec id="sec-8"><title>CNN extraction model</title>
<p>In our experiment, a feature extractor called CNN-Extractor<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="ref-9">[9]</xref>, which adopted the ResNet as a CNN seed for image captioning and visual question answering, is the best feature extractor of the aforementioned methods that is utilized to extract feature vectors of environmental images. The output of the last fully connected layer of the CNN-Extractor is collected as the input feature vector for the combined CNN-LSTM model training stage.</p>
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<sec id="sec-9"><title>Proposed combined CNN and LSTM model</title>
<p>The training data of Road 1 are selected randomly with five cases of training data ratios containing 65%, 70%, 75%, 80%, and 85%. The results of data training using the proposed CNN-LSTM model are achieved in terms of mean squared error (MSE) of 5.416, 5.336, 4.927, 4.826, and 4.683, respectively. The decrease in the MSE of the evaluation stage with more trained data shows that the proposed model is probably stable and robust</p>
<p>1 n 2</p>
<p>enough to cope with a wide range of different visual data. MSE is formulated as MSE = ∑i=1(oi − pi) .</p>
<p>where oi is the ith original value, pi is the corresponding predicted value for oi, and n is the number of observations. The Σ indicates that a summation is performed over all values of i.</p>
<p><xref ref-type="table" rid="tab1">Table 1</xref> lists experimental results with the same training data ratio of 85% for both traditional LSTM and combined CNN-LSTM models and shows clear evidence of better forecast accuracy of the proposed combined method compared to the original LSTM model. MSE for lifelog data is much smaller with the proposed combined method than with the traditional LSTM.</p>
<table-wrap id="tab1"><label>Table 1</label><caption><p>Experimental results.</p></caption><graphic content-type="pdf-region" xlink:href="pdf-region:3:66,315.9,553.8,577.7"/><p content-type="note">This table is shown in the PDF version of the article.</p></table-wrap>
<p>As we know, the LSTM model outperformed traditional statistical models commonly used for time-series prediction. However, the results demonstrated in <xref ref-type="fig" rid="fig2">Fig. 2</xref>a show that the traditional LSTM model captured only temporal information and was not accurate in some abnormal changes in PM2.5 concentration (e.g., traffic congestion, garbage, …etc.).</p>
<p>As illustrated in <xref ref-type="fig" rid="fig2">Fig. 2</xref>b, the proposed combined CNN-LSTM model which used both spatial environmental images and temporal PM2.5 information achieved superior PM2.5 concentration prediction accuracy compared to the traditional LSTM approach. In the proposed model, the CNN component effectively extracted spatial features from environmental images, capturing the spatial features associated with PM2.5 concentrations. Then, the LSTM component captured the temporal dependencies and extracted spatial features in the data, allowing accurate predictions over time, especially for abnormal PM2.5 cases. Finally, the experimental results show the effectiveness of the proposed combined CNN-LSTM approach for PM2.5 prediction in Vietnam.</p>
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<sec id="sec-10"><label>4</label><title>Discussion and Conclusion</title>
<p>In this paper, we proposed a combined CNN-LSTM deep learning model to predict PM2.5 concentration in Vietnam. Experimental results shown that the proposed model using both spatial and temporal features achieved superior PM2.5 concentration prediction accuracy compared to the traditional LSTM model, which has been commonly used for time-series prediction. The proposed combined CNN-LSTM model accurately extracted spatial features related to PM2.5 from environmental images and temporal information from PM2.5 concentrations in the lifelog data, resulting in robustly accurate predictions.</p>
<p>As a result, this research contributes to the prediction of factors causing environmental pollution in the field of public health, offering an overview of air quality control not only in Vietnam but also in other regions (e.g., Asia-Pacific) facing similar environmental pollutants. The proposed accurate PM2.5 prediction model, which employs a combined CNN-LSTM model, assists government leaders in making decisions and strategies for effective air pollution management. In the future, ongoing research and application of this approach may result in better air quality control and promotion of public healthcare in Vietnam and the Asia-Pacific region.</p>
<fig id="fig2"><label>Figure 2</label><caption><p>Experimental results of PM2.5 prediction models; a. traditional LSTM model, b. Combined CNN-LSTM model.</p></caption><graphic content-type="pdf-region" xlink:href="pdf-region:4:66,216.5,553.8,586.3"/><p content-type="note">This figure is shown in the PDF version of the article.</p></fig>
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<sec id="sec-11"><title>Author Contributions</title>
<p>Vo Phuong-Binh was responsible for the conceptualization of the research, model design, data collection, and analysis. Vo also drafted the manuscript and reviewed the final version for publication.</p>
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<sec id="sec-12"><title>Funding</title>
<p>The author received financial support from Dalat University (DLU), Vietnam for funding this study, under the DLU Science Research Project 1104/QĐ-ĐHĐL.</p>
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<sec id="sec-13"><title>Data Availability</title>
<p>The datasets used in this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.</p>
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<sec id="sec-14"><title>Declaration of Conflicting Interests</title>
<p>The author declared no potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.</p>
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